Bernd Leno - Has he really lived up to the expectations set?
Bernd Leno joined Arsenal in 2019 and was seen as an important piece to a hopeful rejuvenation of Arsenal’s defence p
Arsenal were looking at signing a keeper in 2018 to replace the ageing Petr Cech, who was about to embark on his last year as a professional player. They decided to opt for Bernd Leno, the Bayer Leverkusen goalkeeper who they then signed for £19.3 million. He was brought in to be Arsenal’s answer to Man City’s Ederson Moraes, but the reality is far from this. His standout attribute since he’s joined Arsenal is his shot-stopping (which has surprised many) with his save percentage in the Premier League averaging at 72.4%, making him a reliable shot-stopper in a time where Arsenal was anything but reliable. Although his distribution hasn’t been at the level expected of him by Arsenal fans & Arsenal scouts since he joined the club, with Bernd Leno at Arsenal being almost opposite to the player that was at Bayer Leverkusen, which begs the question. Has he really lived up to the expectations set out for him?
The expectation:
To see what Arsenal was expecting from Bernd Leno, It’s important to see his shot-stopping, distribution & cross-collection numbers from Leno’s final season at Bayer Leverkusen, as they set out why he was the first choice Petr Cech replacement by Sven Mislintat, and why Man City wanted him the season before.
In 2017/18, Bernd Leno had a save percentage of 66.3% whilst also underperforming his expected goals minus goals allowed (he recorded -0.17 PSxG per 90), so It's clear that he's expected to be a half decent shot-stopper, but not one that should be winning golden gloves & being near the best in the division.
44% of his passes in 2017/18 (outside of goal kicks) were 40 yard passes, his reputation at Bayer Leverkusen was partly built from his ability to start attacks from the back, with Leno recording 6 shot-creating actions that year. That statistic justifies why he was on the 2 men shortlist for Man City to fill their goalkeeper position in 2017 to replace Claudio Bravo. Which sets the expectation that he should be another creative outlet for Arsenal, someone for the manager to build his system around.
Bernd Leno’s presence in the box was never extraordinary. At Bayer Leverkusen, he was only able to collect 5.4% of all crosses coming into the box in 2017/18, which is an "average" figure. He should realistically be good enough to get by for Arsenal, without being a goalkeeper that provides a lot of security for his team mates.
His shot-stopping
His shot-stopping is the part of his game that Arsenal fans have fallen in love with when it comes to the player. In his first 3 seasons at Arsenal, Bernd Leno has recorded save percentages of 74.8%, 77.6% & 70% respectively. This is something remarkable considering Bernd Leno had only recorded a save percentage of above 70% in 3 of the last 8 seasons, counting his spell in the German lower divisions, exceeding any shot-stopping related expectations by the club.
He has made very important saves before as well, in particular his double save against Spurs during the NLD in 2019 springs to mind, where he was able to deny Christian Eriksen & Moussa Sissoko in quick succession. His cat-like reflexes to complete this save is something experienced in brief moments during his stint at Bayer Leverkusen, but they weren’t what the scouts expected when he joined Arsenal.
He Isn’t a perfect shot-stopper by all means, the 2 goals he conceded against Olympiakos in the second leg of the RO32 EL tie cost Arsenal a place in the RO16. Both of the goals he conceded were a result of his poor starting position and heavy footing when the ball came into the box, something that’s a general theme when he does concede goals in “important matches.” That being said, It doesn’t change him being a success on that front.
Leno’s phenomenal save was applauded by many
His command of the box:
By many, a weakness of Bernd Leno is his presence in the box, which is to be expected considering his cross-claiming numbers at Bayer Leverkusen in 2017/18. He was able to collect 5.4% crosses into the box that year, something he has improved on in the following 2 seasons at Arsenal (collecting 6.8% & 6.6% of all crosses in 2018/19 & 2019/20. During the 2020/21 PL season, Bernd Leno has been able to stop 4.7% of all crosses into the penalty area. By comparison, Edouard Mendy has been able to stop 7.3%, Emi Martinez has stopped 7.4%, and Nick Pope has stopped 12.3%.
Leno has done well in comparison to other goalkeepers when it comes to claiming crosses, and he has done well compared to his final season at Bayer Leverkusen for the most part, but he should be trying to be in the company of Martinez, Pope & Mendy, rather than simply being better than the other 15-18 goalkeepers in the league with average cross-collection numbers. It’s key to note that Emi Martinez was able to collect 6.3% of all crosses into the penalty box during his post-lockdown spell at Arsenal, a figure bettered by Leno in 2018/19 & 2019/20 statistically but not visually.
Leno has struggled to command his box across his Arsenal stint
Matt Doherty’s goal against Arsenal in 2019 is the goal that I associate with Bernd Leno’s cross-collection ability. Jonny Otto was able to cross the ball into the box where Bernd Leno was, and Instead of trying to claim the ball, Bernd Leno tried to punch it away & mistimed it horribly, conceding as a result. Bernd Leno’s repeated attempts at punching the ball away rather than simply claiming it can be put down to it being a learned mannerism, that he had picked up during his time in Germany. It’s something to be expected, and It’s unfortunate that he hasn’t been able to unlearn this trait due to the amount of dangerous positions he has put Arsenal in as a result.
Bernd Leno’s inability to start attacks:
The demands for a goalkeeper in the modern game has changed, with the keeper expected to act as an additional attacking outlet as well as be a reliable presence in the box. A trait that Leno has developed at Arsenal is him dithering on the ball before passing it to anyone, he didn’t have this at Bayer Leverkusen, and he was able to create 6 shot-creating actions (SCA) in 2017/18, since 2018/19, he’s created 1 SCA at Arsenal, falling short of expectations.
When Leno gets the ball, he waits a few seconds before deciding as to what he wants to do with the ball. Those 3-5 seconds Bernd Leno spends making that decision allows the opposition to regain their desired shape & mitigates most if any transitional threat Arsenal would have if Bernd Leno decides to launch the ball right after he got it. At Bayer Leverkusen, he was known for his “launched passes.” 40% of his non goal kick passes would be launched passes, or passes more than 40 yards. This season, that accounts for 19.8% of his non goal kick passes.
Leno struggles to think with haste on the ball which has led to multiple potential attacks dying out
Something Bernd Leno does more often this season is rush out to collect the ball, which Is a part of his game that I love to watch. There is an issue with how he does it, he does the same thing as when he gets the ball in the box, he dithers before playing a simple pass to his teammate. The picture above shows an instance where Leno rushes out to claim the ball from outside the box, and instead of passing it to Gabriel Magalhaes quickly, who can then keep Arsenal on the front foot, he waits before getting the ball to who was initially meant to get the ball.
Bernd Leno had a reputation of starting attacks through long balls on his own. He completed 4 long balls against Leeds United whilst attempting 29, which is poor from an efficiency viewpoint but good from a volume perspective. Emi Martinez attempted 30 long balls against Liverpool early July, and he was able to complete 10 of them. Arsenal had similar gameplans against LFC & LUFC, using the goalkeeper as an additional attacking threat through long balls to beat teams that will press the defenders relentlessly. It worked well against Liverpool & not so well against Leeds. Even by Leverkusen’s Bernd Leno standards, that’s poor. In Leverkusen’s 2-0 win against Mönchengladbach in 2018, Leno completed 10/21 long balls & he was able to register a key pass, something he has only done once at Arsenal in 3 years.
Conclusion:
Bernd Leno hasn’t lived up to expectations, no matter how you spin the narrative. He was brought in to be the goalkeeper to usher Arsenal into immediate success in the Post-Arsene Wenger era. He was brought in to be a good replacement for Petr Cech, who had won the golden glove at Arsenal in his first season at the club whilst helping them mount a title challenge in 2015/16. Leno has been a strong shot-stopper, one of the best in world football, statistically & visually, but he falls short where he should’ve been excelling at. He’s failed to act as another attacking outlet, he has failed to show vast improvement in the last 3 seasons in the box, failing to provide security to his teammates & repeatedly failing to keep the ball out of danger (explaining why he has 7 errors leading to goals since 2018.)
any stats used is from before the NLD today
Written by Harry also known as @RunReissRun on Twitter
