Scout report: Patrick Bamford

Patrick Bamford is currently the 5th highest PL goalscorer and ranks also 5th in expected goals in the Premier League

27-year-old centre forward Patrick Bamford has always been a divisive figure in England amongst football fans, overlooked by most due to his subpar goal-scoring record, but adored by so-called “football hipsters” for his overall play. Early on in his career, he was a highly coveted young prospect, who was bought by Chelsea in January of 2012, a few months after graduating from Nottingham Forest’s academy.  All it took was seven different loan moves, with varying levels of success, for him to be deemed not good enough for the first team, and eventually sold to Middlesbrough. Four years and a transfer move to Leeds United later, he has been one of the break-out stars of the Premier League 2020/21 season, under the tutelage of legendary coach Marcelo Bielsa. In this piece, I will examine his tactical fit in Bielsa’s system, the strengths and weaknesses in different areas of Bamford’s game, as well as his tendencies on the pitch.

TACTICAL FIT

Bamford is a pure centre forward, and plays all off his minutes at this exact position, in Marcelo Bielsa’s 4-1-4-1 / 4-3-3 variation. Despite him dropping deep to link-up play being arguably the biggest strength of his skillset, I would not call him a false 9. While his movement is not restricted to the final 3rd, he is not the primary creative threat of his team and is better off playing off of several other playmakers behind him.

20/21 Leeds United

As seen by the excessive amount of arrows representing the movement patterns of players in the Leeds lineup, it is evident that Bamford plays in a fluid system, with many runners around him, who look to move infield and either combine with him or open up space for him and others.

Leeds’ system is verticality-oriented when it comes to ball progression. A lot of the time, he is asked to be a target man, and get on the end of long balls from deep, in order to link up play to the runners from deep. That includes knockdowns, one-twos, as well as making runs to the channels and wide areas, to hold it up, and bring others into play. All this will be broken down later on in the piece.

MOVEMENT, LINK-UP PLAY & CREATIVITY:

I decided to combine these 3 specific areas of Bamford’s game in one section, due to them being linked one way or another, and at the same time constitute Bamford’s biggest strengths. Where he has lacked as a finisher, he has made it up throughout his career with his overall play. His heatmap this season shows his wade range of involvement on actions in many areas of the pitch:

Bamford’s season’s heatmap

Starting off, as mentioned above, the centre forward in Leeds’ system is asked to be the target when instead of the deeper players playing out of the first 3rd, the ball is kicked long for more direct ball progression.

In the instance above, Bamford knocks the ball down with his head for Harrison, who is running from deep on the right flank.

Patrick is adequate at “target-man” play, as he possesses excellent technique on knock-downs, however, he can struggle to control the ball when contested from behind by tall & physical defenders. His frame is rather slight after all, standing at 6’2 and weighing 71 kgs according to fbref.com. Compared to an elite target man like Dominic Calvert-Lewin for example, the difference is night-and-day in that particular aspect.

When the opposition’s defensive block retreats to a settled structure, that’s where Bamford’s combination play really shines. He has a knack for one-twos, and always puts correct weight in his short passes, so they reach their target, even with many defenders around the ball. That is an especially underrated skill when judging centre forwards.

In the example above, he puts perfect weight in the return ball of the one-two with Raphinha, playing him between three defenders, in a position that led to a shot.

Bamford also has excellent ball control in tight spaces, which is an ideal skill when playing against a low defensive block, which usually means that the centre forward is surrounded by multiple bodies.

He is also very intelligent in regards to movement off the ball, with respect to the movement of others. Meaning, he knows what spaces to occupy, depending on what spaces his teammates will occupy. This is especially useful for a team with a system that implements positional play. To illustrate that point:

Alioski has the ball in midfield and Rodrigo makes an angled run from the right towards the left half-space to receive the ball between the lines. Bamford was initially operating around that space, he sports Rodrigo’s run and drifts towards the right, in order to occupy the defenders that could potentially follow Rodrigo, thus opening up space for him.

His creative ability is a major part of his appeal as a centre forward. He does not have a great final ball from deep, however, he uses his intelligent movement to get into areas where he can find runners into the box via cutbacks or short through passes.

The above is accurately illustrated in Bamford’s assist versus Leicester earlier this season:

Luke Ayling has the ball on the right flank in Leeds’ half and looks to play the ball forward. Bamford makes a run in the channel between the two Leicester City centre backs and Ayling spots him and plays him in.

Bamford receives in the right half-space and has attracted both of Leicester’s centre backs, opening up plenty of space in the middle. Stuart Dallas makes a dynamic run towards that space, Bamford spots him and plays him beyond the backline with the outside of his left foot. Dallas receives and scores.

In his assist against Fulham, he showed his ability in wide spaces:

Bamford picked up the ball on the left around the half-way line, ran all the way to the final third, and played a brilliantly disguised cutback to Helder Costa, who was arriving later than anyone else in Fulham’s box, and coolly slotted it home. 

Numbers-wise, he has 5 assists on 2.8 xAssists this season in the Premier League, 0.7 key passes per 90, as well as 0.5 goal creating actions per 90, which ranks in the 90th percentile among forwards in the PL. Solid creative numbers for a centre forward, especially one who is his team’s sole consistent goal scorer.

FINISHING:

This is the area that I struggled the most with when analysing Bamford’s game. It has been described as his biggest weakness, and rightly so in previous seasons, however in the current Premier League campaign, Bamford is firing on all cylinders.

Before this season, he had 95 goals in 246 senior appearances (0.38 per game), and just in the Premier League, he had 1 goal in 27 appearances, stretching through two seasons and four different loan spells. It is also notable how last season in the Championship with title-winning side Leeds, in 45 appearances, he had 16 goals on a whopping 24.82 xG. A sign of massive underperformance in finishing.

This season is a different story. So far he has 13 goals in 27 appearances in the Premier League, and that on 13.8 xG. Just one of his 13 goals was a penalty, the only one he’s taken this season. Still a slight underperformance, but much more reasonable.

So what’s the issue? After going through clips of many misses in Bamford’s career, my verdict is the following:

Most of Bamford’s misses are rather spectacular, and that is because they are usually high xG chances, close-range shots from cutbacks and crosses. Generally, I would describe them as instinctive chances, that do not require a lot of composure, just solid contact. As you will see later, his shooting technique when there is time to line up the shot is usually excellent, however, he usually cannot wrap his foot around some shots that require quick reaction time and agility in the hips. Physically speaking, this is obviously an area that can be worked on and would lead to more goals for him.

It is extremely subtle, but in the above “tap-in” situation, it is clear to see how the body orientation he has, along with his tall and lanky frame, make it difficult for him to turn his foot in a direction where he can strike towards the far corner. The shot ended up being straight at the keeper.

At times, Bamford has also been hesitant to use his right foot when attacking chances. This aversion to his less dominant foot has led to some misses for him, and the previous instance analysed, is a solid example. The use of his right foot would have made it much easier for him to convert from that angle.

As is widely known, confidence can affect a player’s finishing, especially one of a centre forward. Many of his misses in 2019/20 could be attributed to low confidence. This year, however, his goal in the first game of the season against the defending champions Liverpool, got him off to a fast start and he hasn’t looked back since.

Some of his finishing this season has been absolutely astounding. His goals-against Aston Villa is a prime example.

Distance, angle, coverage from the defender in front of him, make his second goal in that game a very special one. Excellent technique, to use an out-swinging curve and hit the top corner with his left foot. 

Against Fulham, he showcased his intelligent movement, by attacking the space left by the absent opposition right back, to get in behind the defensive line, receive Klich’s through ball:

Once again, his goal-scoring instincts, off-ball movement and striking technique are on full display, this time against Leicester. Seeing that the ball is about to be won back, Bamford signals to Struijk to play it forward quickly, as he is in space in the channel between the two centre backs:

As Struijk plays it quickly to Raphinha, Bamford checks his shoulder to confirm that he is not offside, and begins his run to the box, to get at the end of Raphinha’s first time ball:

The only way I can describe Bamford’s finish from an improbable angle, is simply world class:

AERIAL PROWESS:

After all, Bamford is 6’2 (188 cm) and so you would expect him to be really good aerially. In reality, it is a rather mixed bag.

As mentioned earlier, he has a slight frame, and that makes it tough for him to engage with physical defenders in aerial duels. He is not a centre forward where your team will be crossing the ball to him 25 times per game. He is however quite good uncontested, as he knows how to guide his headers to the opposite corner. Once again, his intelligent off-ball movement generates chances for him to showcase his heading accuracy.

A prime example is his goal against Sheffield United: 

Bamford has perfected a textbook off-ball move that all top centre forwards possess: Going one way to drag the defender with him and then quickly changing direction to go the other way and connect with the cross. That’s exactly what he does here, as he initially moves between the two centre backs, but then makes an opposite angled run towards the far post to meet with Harrison’s cross.

Once he connects, the heading technique is perfect, as the ball bounces to the ground in front of the keeper, and leaves no chance for him to save it flies up towards the top corner:

Another area where he uses his aerial prowess to his team’s advantage is in defensive set-piece situations. Bielsa always places him in the middle of the box in order to use his height to clear the ball. His 0.93 clearances per 90 come almost exclusively from set-pieces.

ATHLETICISM:

As was illustrated in the finishing section, Bamford lacks in the agility department, a fact which is fair to attribute to his tall and lanky frame. Despite his high-quality ball control in tight spaces, his lack of agility makes him struggle in certain situations.

He is also not the most explosive of athletes. Compared to a centre forward like Ollie Watkins, his first step and acceleration over the first few metres are not on that level. However, he definitely has good pace in a straight line when he reaches top speed. 

For example:

He outsprinted everyone else on the pitch and took him just seven seconds to go from the edge of his own box to almost Leicester’s final third to get to the ball. The sequence ended with him laying the ball on a plate to Jack Harrison to make it 1-3, a few more seconds later.

PRESSING:

His pressing is another one of his game’s strong points. He is the spearhead of Bielsa’s pressing scheme for Leeds. It requires a high level of intelligence and intensity for a centre forward to perform that role.

At times, he can be a bit lackadaisical when he presses, however he makes up for that with his knowledge of who to press and when to do it. His 16.23 pressures per 90, along with his 4.69 successful pressures per 90, rank in the 78th and 86th percentile respectively among Premier League forwards.

Here, he jumps to press the goalkeeper who is on the ball, but does that with his body at an angle where he closes the potential passing line to the left centre back:

VERDICT

All in all, Patrick Bamford has been one of the best centre forwards in the Premier League this season. 18 npG/A in 27 games for a side in mid-table is extremely impressive. His link-up play, creativity, pressing, striking technique make him a very desirable option upfront. His finishing is not at a consistent world-class level at this point, and he is also an average PL level athlete, nothing too impressive. 

With his contract expiring in 2022, he will surely have to make a decision this summer whether to extend at Leeds or hunt for a bigger move. Would I recommend him to an upper-mid-table PL side? Absolutely. Would I recommend him to a contending PL side? Absolutely, but with a slight reservation. He would be better utilised in a system with other goal-scoring forwards around him. He will definitely get you goals, but they might not be enough for a top 4 finish. Also, playing him along with other goalscorers suits the strengths of his game, as his superb combination play would bring out the best of them.

Personally, I love the player and I’m definitely rooting for him to get a big move this summer. Thanks for reading.

Nikolas Stephanatos (@ncstef on Twitter)