Who should Arsenal look to sign as their next centre-forward?
There’s been a lot of talk about Arsenal signing a striker for some time now, will they go for a tall centre-forward with strong all-round play or find a nimble one who’s able to run in behind.
The Criteria:
Has to be 5’10+
Needs a good goalscoring record
Has to be financially feasible for Arsenal in the next 18 months.
He has to be somewhat attainable.
Patrick Bamford
A controversial name for many, but Patrick Bamford has had a great start to his PL career. Averages 1 G/A every 121 mins, has 18 months left on his deal with no news of a renewal. Question marks are surrounding his consistency in front of the goal but Bamford has shown enough outside the final third to be a strong choice. Arsenal needs a player they can get the ball down to & keep possession going in the middle of the pitch, as well as someone who can finish a move, which Bamford can do.
Match Analysis for Patrick Bamford: Aston Villa vs Leeds
Patrick Bamford had a great game against Aston Villa at Villa Park earlier on the season, scoring a hattrick & contributing with 2 key passes. Watching the game, I notice how select Bamford is with everything he does. He won’t track back unless it’s necessary to do so (If the opposition are going to exploit space in the middle of the park.) He won’t press unless It’s in a coordinated fashion, and the goals he scored are goals you would enjoy watching for hours on end.
The Data:
90 mins played
9 shots (3 on target)
3 goals
1/1 dribble completed
8/13 passes completed
2 key passes
2/6 ground duels won
3/4 Aerial duels won
Was fouled once.
Bamford was close to the right-hand side (where Arsenal are weakest) and he ventured into the left-hand side if there was an opening/blindside for him to exploit, which he did effectively. All of the goals he scored were in the right half space or on the right side of the goal, which displays his bias towards playing on the right that bit more. It’s good news for Arsenal because if they do get him, they can trust him to provide Nico Pépé or Bukayo Saka an extra passing option, instead of keeping them isolated (which is what happens when Aubameyang or Lacazette play up front for the club.)
Patrick Bamford’s runs in behind are what you need in a modern-day centre-forward. He can pick up on where the opposition CB is worst (which is when they cover their blindside) and he can turn those situations into ones where he can get chances for himself. Him getting 9 shots that game is no accident, the amount of runs in behinds that he makes that gets picked up by the LWB/LW is incredible. Arsenal can take advantage of it by getting Kieran Tierney to attempt ground crosses in the path of Bamford, which can lead to a goal more often than not.
Something to note, Mings (Aston Villa’s LCB) is unreliable in his defensive third, he likes to take advantage of his recovery pace to get up to players which can go wrong If he’s outsmarted in those situations (It can lead to a penalty for your side.)
Patrick Bamford has great spatial awareness and he knows which direction to make runs to pose a threat to the opposition players. He takes a man away from the man on the ball to create a new dilemma for those tracking the runs of the Leeds players on the counter. The counter then fizzles out due to it being slowed down (not Bamford related) but in a better team, that could become a quick goal with him on the end of it.
Bamford was able to take the sting out of Luiz’s run by tracking him from the halfway line & preventing him from coming inwards. When Meslier was able to collect the ball from a cross afterwards, Bamford was back in position to get on the end of a counter-attack (which didn’t succeed due to good defending from Matty Cash at the end.)
All of Bamford’s goals showed something different about him. The first goal showed how good of an ‘instinct’ player he is, he can pounce on the mistakes of a goalkeeper, especially when there’s a player slow to react for him (Tyrone Mings.) For Arsenal, this is huge. Arsenal are capable of forcing mistakes from the opposition regularly and need someone to pounce when they’re forced.
Patrick Bamford’s close control is beautiful. For me, that’s his most underrated feature. He was able to receive the ball with 4 Aston Villa players surrounding him (7 in sight) and he was able to launch the ball into the top right corner, flat-footing Emi Martinez in the process. For all the flak Bamford gets for being an inconsistent finisher, his game outside it makes up for it as it can produce these types of moments.
This goal follows on from his second, Bamford’s close control is amongst the best on the planet, and he uses it to good effect. He gets the ball past 2 Villa players and then lofts the ball over Emi Martinez to complete his hattrick. When Lacazette had that run in 2018/19 where he could score from his close control, he needed to have a side of the ball where no one could touch him, which made his goals easier than they should be. Bamford does that to a better level, and he doesn’t need that space where no one is occupying in order to score.
Andrea Belotti
I aim to offer ‘unusual’ suggestions for Arsenal’s centre-forward position and Belotti follows that line. Belotti has 16 G+A in 22 league games, and he has shown some level of consistency for a few years now. He could be key in helping Arsenal sustain attacks with his final third decision making leading to 3.72 SCA p90. If he does join, Arsenal will still need to play on the ground, and make up for his lack of willingness to defend through attaining control or having a ‘hardworking’ CM to cover for him.
Belotti In comparison to other Serie A players:
Andrea Belotti ranks amongst the best in his division in pure goals & assists, his return of 16 G+A is better than every single Arsenal player in the Premier League this season. Belotti gets 0.74 G+A per game, which would place him 10th in the Premier League, the highest place Arsenal player is Alex Lacazette who has 0.68 G+A per game.
Andreas Belotti performs very well on advanced metrics, having the 4th most expected assists and 6th most expected goals. He’s able to get involved in a game through his final action. The only ‘worry’ I have Is Henrikh Mkhitaryan reaching similar heights to Belotti in the Serie A & whether taking a chance on him may be a costly mistake in a time where Arsenal can’t afford to take risks.
Analysis of Andrea Belotti: Parma vs Torino
This game showcases the best of Andrea Belotti on a creative front. He’s involved in attacks and can serve as the focal point of one (even if he currently plays in a 2 man strike force.) His exploitation of space during this game got him numerous opportunities on goal (even if it didn’t work out in his favour most of the time.)
The Data:
90 minutes played
54 touches
2 Assists
3 Shots (1 on target)
4/6 dribbles completed
3 key passes
3 Big chances created
1/2 long balls completed
2 tackles
1 Interception
7 Shot Creating Actions
3 Goal Creating Actions
Andrea Belotti’s playmaking will be what I’ll mainly look at in this article because It is out of the world. In this instance, he had 4 runners to play the ball towards, and he went for the ‘easy option’ on paper, the through ball to Wilfried Singo, the Torino fullback who was able to slot the ball past the keeper and into the back of the net. Arsenal doesn’t have a centre forward capable of dropping deep to help their team on transition. Aubameyang & Lacazette would rather attack on their own or take the ball backwards to Xhaka, or Partey and restart the attack again.
This piece of play is the type of play I love to see from a striker, one where they pick up the ball deep from their half, drive forwards & exploit the gaps in the opposing defence. Belotti loves to do this when he’s in a position where there are 2 or 3 defending players he has to battle to keep the ball. Fearlessness is something I desire in a centre-forward and can be useful for Arsenal.
André Silva
André Silva is a great finisher, he can head the ball effectively and control the ball very well (most of the time,) so the €30m price being touted for him is worth looking into. He isn’t perfect though, his adaptation to the prem may take time. For him to be ‘the man’ for Arsenal, he’ll need to show that he can maintain similar finishing levels over 30-35 league games. His ball retention can be a bit off at the start of the final third & he doesn’t cover as much ground as I would like him to cover.
Match analysis for André Silva – Frankfurt vs Monchengladbach:
This was one of André Silva’s best games, magnifying his strengths. His holdup play in the final third was great this game, helping him get an assist. He was able to finish a chance he received on transition without too many problems because of his strength. The only issue from this game is his hold up play in the middle of the park, he had a few instances where he failed to retain the ball or make the right decision with his passes, leading to a slow(er) attack happening.
The Data:
83 minutes played
37 touches
2 Goals
1 Assist
13/21 passes completed
3 shots (2 on target)
2/3 Dribbles completed
2 Key Passes
4/6 Ground Duels Won
6/11 Aerial Duels Won
André Silva’s second goal of the night was him exploiting the high line of Borussia Monchengladbach with a perfectly weighted ball from Barkok. He was able to power through and get the ball in the back of the net with the least amount of fuss needed.
For Arsenal, they can use his runs to their advantage. David Luiz loves to launch balls right behind the opponent's high line, especially if Arsenal are in a situation where the opponents are settled in their half. This is all dependent on Arsenal having someone with the ability to get the ball out of the box quickly in behind the opposition's defence.
Silva returned the favour for Barkok by laying the ball off for him to score, an assist that’s a rarity for him. It shows that his awareness of the game Isn’t a cause for concern, and under a manager that would rely on attacking patterns to score goals instead of solely individual brilliance, that figure will end up rising.
Andre Silva has strong ball retention & he knows when to release the ball well. When his team are attacking the left-hand side, he’ll drop deep to allow the 10 to venture onto the right, and his priority will be to get the ball to him if possible. This could work at Arsenal if they had someone like Smith Rowe, ready to receive the ball in between the opposition CB’s.
Ivan Toney
He has been tearing it up in the championship this season, as he’s close to breaking the Championship G+A record, which makes him a good target for Arsenal to look at this summer. He’s great in the final third & is very strong aerially. The issue is with his high penalty count, which can make a player look much better than he is (see the example of Nico Pépé.) Brentford sell their strikers for a premium & getting him if they get promoted might be near-impossible to do. He needs to build up better, which can only improve once he’s told to drop deep and start attacks as well as finish them.
Match analysis of Ivan Toney: Brentford vs Wycombe Wanderers
The average positioning of the Brentford players show that Ivan Toney is tasked with allowing Sergi Canos to play off him, a setup that will suit Arsenal if they want to sacrifice Toney’s output for the greater good of the team. He gets isolated a lot as a result of his runs, and the onus is on his teammates to pick up his runs & launch the ball into open space (which happened for his first goal.)
The Data:
90 mins played
34 touches
3 Goals
1 Assist
7 shots (4 on target)
13/17 passes completed
1/1 Long ball completed
2/6 Ground duels won
2/4 Aerial duels won
Ivan Toney’s first goal of the night was him exploiting space on the right hand side of the Wycombe defence by running into the defenders blind spot & scoring after the ball was floated into his path. Nothing special as he was bound to get a lot of space in behind the Wycombe defence (they tend to bunch up when they’re defending a cross.) That being said, this works well for any prospective team looking to bring him in as it shows that he has good attacking awareness and he will be ready to do the job when he sees an opening.
Toney’s assist was him winning an aerial battle with the opposition player and laying it off to his man on the right, similar to André Silva’s assist against Monchengladbach. How he won the ball was smart, rather than contesting the duel (where it would’ve been chaotic,) he waited for the opposition player to jump and took advantage by getting it to a good position (away from the opposition, on the right hand side) and then laying it off. Arsenal need someone to do that as such situations can add 3-5 goals in all competitions every year, which is huge considering football is based on fine margins.
He’s a huge threat on transition, when most of the Wycombe side were in the Brentford half to attack a corner, Toney took advantage of the space behind them, and a good long ball to hit them on the break and score again. Arsenal lack a central focal point for counter attacks, relying more on their wingers to do anything. Acquiring Toney would see them score more goals from counters, because he is faster than most opposition centre-backs, and he will be in good positions more often than not.
Yuri Alberto
He’s the biggest risk here, he’s not played a lot of Internacional’s games so far this season but his output has been great. He knows when to run in behind, he can finish to a good standard & he can turn into the player Arteta wants at CF. He isn’t strong in the air, his creativity isn’t great and his passes can be wayward. He reminds me of Nketiah at youth level, but taller & more versatile. I put his name out there because he’s gaining match experience & he could be good for Arsenal in 2022.
Match analysis of Yuri Alberto: Internacional vs Boca Juniors in the Copa Libertadores
Going through the first leg of Internacional vs Boca Juniors in the Copa Libertadores, one thing I immediately noticed is that Internacional line up in a strike partnership of Yuri Alberto & Galhardo. Suggesting that he may need an attacking partner to succeed (possibly a Timo Werner situation.)
The Data:
69 Minutes played
36 touches
1 shot on target
0/2 dribbles completed
16/20 passes completed (80%)
2 tackles
The average positions of the Internacional players can tell a lot about how a player is tasked to play. Alberto (Number 40) is deployed a bit deeper than Galhardo (his strike partner,) and is tasked with linking up with him, D’Alessandro & Patrick to hit the opposition on the break at any given moment.
Yuri Alberto isn’t tasked with pressing the same way Galhardo & D’Alessandro are, he’s given the freedom not to press but to be their target when Boca do lose the ball. For Arsenal, this may serve to be problematic, ideally they can get a centre forward who can press in a coordinated fashion, rather than one who will break out of the pressing structure for his gain.
When Lindoso (?) is about to play the ball, Alberto runs in the space between Bufferini & Lopez to drag Bufferini away from Patrick & to exploit the blindside of Lopez. This showcases a good trait of Alberto’s, he can make effective off the ball runs to allow the opposing Fullback/Centre-Back to have another player to worry about, rather than him dropping deep & giving the Fullback less problems. Contrast this with Aubameyang pushing himself wide to receive the ball which takes out the sting from any attack Arsenal attempt.
Alberto is great at timing his runs, he won’t venture in behind the opposing backline too early, he’s willing to wait that second or two so the offside trap can’t get the better of him.
His first touch isn’t good, when he received the ball in a harmless position, he miss-controlled it (I assume it’s because he tried to lay off Patrick/Number 14) and his team got hit on the counter-attack right after because their shape wasn’t ‘settled.’ In the Premier League, such mistakes go punished all the time, especially if you lose the ball close to the middle of the pitch.
I’m not suggesting that he won’t be able to improve on his first touch there, it’s partially down to his decision making. He needs to learn when to slow down his game, and when to speed it up, rather than trying to speed it up continuously (which most Brazilian league players do habitually.)
In this instance, him operating as a left-sided forward is good, he’s able to go on the outside of the opposition RCB and create space for himself to exploit. This is also possible to be done at PL level with RCB’s in the league being quite slow in comparison to the LCB’s (with a few exceptions.) Kieran Tierney could drill the ball into open space for Alberto to latch on, but there will be question marks surrounding whether he is capable of doing enough to retain the ball (which is a huge weakness of his.)
This game wasn’t too bad for Alberto, even though he was subbed off after 69 minutes. His offside awareness, off the ball, runs/decoy runs and space creation (in general) are all traits Arsenal desire, but he is nowhere near the finished article. Arsenal need a centre forward who’s able to hold up the play, delay releasing the ball before enough players are up on the pitch, and to create effectively which is all things Alberto is unable to do right now. For the right price, he would be worth exploring.
Conclusion:
I’ve put out some names with Silva being the best finisher, Bamford & Toney being the most complete. Belotti being the most creative & Alberto being the biggest risk to take.
It’s never going to be that simple choosing a player for Arsenal to get. Yuri Alberto would be a great player to partner Ivan Toney or Andre Silva in a 2 man strike force. Patrick Bamford & Andrea Belotti are the only ones with consistent match experience playing as a lone Centre-forward (which Arsenal want) but Bamford is the only one playing there right now. If Arsenal want to sign a centre forward that’s a risk with huge upside, I would go for Andrea Belotti, but that depends on who Arsenal sign this summer.
Written by Harry who you can find on Twitter: www.twitter.com/RunReissRun
